The European Union reacted swiftly to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. “Very disturbing,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen just a few hours later. As a member of the Council of Europe and an EU accession candidate, Turkey must respect the rights of elected politicians, she said. The EU wants the country to remain anchored in Europe. “But that requires a clear commitment to democratic norms and practices.” Council President António Costa echoed these sentiments.
But by now, the European Commission and the Council of Member States have collectively fallen silent. It almost seems as if they are trying to ignore the domestic escalation and carry on as if nothing has happened. On the day of the arrest, the Commission presented its draft legislation for the €150 billion arms funding program. Turkish arms manufacturers are included in the plan, unlike their British counterparts. After the European Council’s discussions on Ukraine, Costa and von der Leyen briefed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the results. When asked about the situation, a Commission spokesperson simply pointed out that Turkey wants to be part of a “coalition of the willing” supporting Kyiv.
Next on the agenda are two “high-level dialogues” with Ankara—one on the economy and another on security and migration. The respective commissioners will meet with Turkish ministers—part of the so-called positive agenda with Ankara agreed upon by the member states a year ago. A Commission spokesperson said they did not want to speculate about a cancellation; the dialogues were set to go ahead—beginning with the economic talks later this month. “We will use this opportunity to also raise the issue of İmamoğlu’s release,” it was said. The conclusion had been that canceling the talks would not be an effective pressure tactic. For the same reason, consultations on modernizing the customs union and on visa-free travel for Turkish citizens would continue.
Not everyone in Brussels sees it that way. The European Parliament held a debate on the “crackdown on democracy in Turkey and the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu.” The topic was added to the agenda at short notice, along with a statement from the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas. The foreign affairs spokesperson for the European People’s Party (EPP) stated: “As long as İmamoğlu remains in custody, there can be no business as usual with Turkey.” This applies even to otherwise desirable topics like closer alignment on the customs union and visa liberalization. “It would also send the wrong signal to hold ministerial meetings now,” Gahler added. For the Social Democrats, there is an additional dimension: İmamoğlu, the detained mayor, has been nominated as the presidential candidate of the CHP, which belongs to their own political family.
However, the member states—whose voices carry most weight in foreign policy—are, for now, aligned with the Commission. This includes Germany, even though Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for the politician’s release at the last EU summit in Brussels, stating that the arrest was a “very, very bad sign” for Turkey’s relationship with Europe. So far, Germany has taken no initiative in the Council’s bodies to follow up on these remarks, diplomats confirmed. This is especially noteworthy as Berlin has traditionally been the strongest proponent of the “positive agenda” with Ankara among the member states. Yet, even those countries that take a more critical view of Ankara are currently lying low.
In background conversations, diplomats cite two main reasons. First, they say, the EU no longer has real leverage since accession negotiations were frozen at the end of 2016—at the time in response to the wave of arrests following the coup attempt in Turkey. A formal end to the process is still not on the table. Talks on expanding the customs union, for instance to include services, are also in Europe’s interest. This applies even more to cooperation on migration. When von der Leyen visited Erdoğan in mid-December, she brought a symbolic gift—another billion euros in aid for Syrian refugees in Turkey. In total, the EU has already spent ten billion euros on this since 2016, even when all other contacts were at a low point.
Secondly, diplomats consistently point to the “changed geopolitical context.” Erdoğan has skillfully exploited the fact that he has nothing to fear from the U.S. in terms of condemnation for his authoritarian behavior. With his offer to send troops to monitor a ceasefire in Ukraine, he has actually gained favor with U.S. President Donald Trump. The EU, on the other hand, would be wise to rally partners in light of U.S. tariffs. EU officials also highlight the constructive role Ankara plays in foreign policy—such as securing Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea and recent developments in Syria. The agreement between the new authorities there and the Kurds, which provides for their integration into the new power structures, is also seen as a success credited to Erdoğan. “He’s on a roll,” some say.
So, will İmamoğlu’s arrest go without consequences in the EU? That’s far from certain. All actors in Brussels say they are closely monitoring the situation. Should Erdoğan crack down violently on protests in the country and imprison thousands more, the EU would have to respond.
