The hand that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan extends toward the Kurds in the country is often a clenched fist. The government has removed three mayors from the pro-Kurdish DEM party in southeastern Turkey, the heartland of the Kurdish minority, citing alleged links to terrorist organizations, replacing them with government appointees. Previously, the mayor of Esenyurt, Istanbul’s largest district, had also been dismissed under the same pretext. Although a member of the Kemalist opposition CHP party, he is Kurdish and was elected in the March local elections with Kurdish support. The district, home to about one million people, serves as a hub of Kurdish life in the Bosporus metropolis.
These events evoke memories of the 2019 local elections. Following the vote, all representatives of the then-pro-Kurdish HDP who had won major cities were replaced by government officials within months. This was later followed by a ban on the HDP, which led to its re-establishment under the name DEM.
After the recent dismissals, protests erupted in several cities against the measures. The DEM party described the actions in a statement as a “coup,” accusing the government of forcibly seizing power in areas where it could not win at the ballot box.
The government is increasing pressure at a time when rapprochement with the Kurds is ostensibly being discussed. In early October, Erdogan’s ultranationalist ally Devlet Bahceli extended a literal hand to the DEM faction in parliament, stating that all political forces in the country should unite in times of threat. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have indeed created a favorable climate for reconciliation between the Kurds and the government. Yet Bahceli’s gesture was surprising, given his MHP party’s history of minority-hostile policies. Even more striking was his subsequent proposal to allow Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned founder of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), to speak in parliament, urging the dissolution of the organization and an end to the armed struggle against the state that has lasted four decades.
Now, Erdogan’s policies toward the Kurdish minority once again flex their muscles. Alongside the carrot, as symbolized by Bahceli’s controversial overture to Öcalan, the government also wields the stick. The crackdown on local politicians serves as a reminder that a return to the repressive policies of previous years remains a constant possibility.
This latest move is likely tied to political calculations. Erdogan seeks a complete overhaul of the constitution, presumably to circumvent the current presidential term limits. His ally Bahceli has openly supported Erdogan’s bid for another term. To amend the constitution, Erdogan requires votes from outside his political base. His attention has turned to the Kurds, partly because of growing disenchantment within Kurdish circles over their alliance with the Kemalist opposition.
Reviving the Kurdish question provides Erdogan with an additional power-political advantage. The issue stirs conflicts within the largest opposition party, CHP, threatening to drive a wedge between its two most prominent politicians. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu advocates for an inclusive, minority-friendly approach, while his Ankara counterpart, Mansur Yavas, comes from a nationalist background and enjoys widespread support outside his party. These differing views influence their stances on the Kurdish issue and their responses to current developments. According to recent polls, both politicians would defeat Erdogan in a direct contest. However, infighting within their ranks and disputes over potential allies will inevitably weaken them.
