The scenes are strikingly similar: in Berlin, Paris, Vienna, and many other European capitals, thousands of Syrians gathered to celebrate the power shift in their homeland following the fall of the Assad terror regime. Despite the winter cold, the atmosphere was jubilant.
Most of these Syrians likely migrated after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, especially from 2014 onwards. Many fled Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime. Does this mean they now wish—or will be compelled—to return as quickly as possible now that the tyrant has been ousted? This question primarily concerns neighboring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, which host the majority of Syrian refugees and where return movements have already begun. However, the discussion is also gaining dramatic momentum in Western Europe, where over a million Syrians have sought refuge, especially as migration-critical parties grow stronger across borders.
Given the volatile situation in Syria and the broader region, predictions are fraught with exceptional uncertainty. Who, after all, could have foreseen the regime’s downfall just a month ago? The mere fact that seven EU states, led by Italy and Austria, called for the normalization of relations with Assad in mid-October to facilitate the return of migrants speaks volumes. For context: in 2011, the EU froze diplomatic ties with Assad and imposed sanctions. Deportations to Syria are currently not taking place.
Now, however, there is increasing pressure to adopt a radical shift in approach toward Syria. Germany, France, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Switzerland have announced the suspension of decisions on Syrian asylum applications until it can be thoroughly reassessed whether grounds for asylum still exist. Austria’s Interior Minister Gerhard Karner has tasked his ministry with preparing “an orderly repatriation and deportation program to Syria.”
The EU, which sets shared standards without unifying national asylum processes, is more cautious. A phase of “great hope but also great uncertainty” has begun in Syria, said a Commission spokesperson. Given the rapid developments, it is too early to assess the regime collapse’s impact on migration policy. The question remains whether Syrians will one day return voluntarily or if some may lose their temporary protection status—terminology varies by country—and thus be required to leave their host countries. The EU Commission asserts that “most Syrians in the diaspora dream of being able to return home.” At the same time, it acknowledges that “the conditions for a safe and dignified return to Syria are currently not in place.”
Before discussions on organized repatriations to Syria can begin, diplomatic relations must first be reestablished. Alongside the EU’s continued engagement in the Ukraine war, handling Syria could become a major test for the newly appointed EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, who took office amid high expectations. She announced that she intends to “work with all constructive forces in Syria and the region.”
But who exactly does this include? Even EU leaders appear unclear on this point—especially regarding the rebel militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has taken power, is listed as a terrorist organization by the UN, and is under sanctions. Kallas’s spokesperson stated that due to confidentiality, details about her diplomatic contacts could not be disclosed but confirmed there were no talks with HTS.
At the same time, the EU is leaving the door open to possibly engage with HTS on the sensitive migration issue. The bloc has stated it will judge the new authorities “not by their words but by their actions.” One thing is certain: the new power dynamics in Syria will occupy the EU intensely, particularly once the dust in Damascus settles.
