By Harold Hyman, Franco-American journalist
To understand Donald Trump’s attitude towards Gaza, we need to understand his approach to three issues: Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. He spoke of territorial expansion in his inaugural speech, in a very 19th century style. Then, on 25 January, he briefly mentioned Greenland. In the days that followed, he added the other two territories. Let us remember that he had briefly mentioned Greenland during his first mandate. But while the idea may have seemed preposterous eight years ago, it has become brutal today.
Now Canada is a target, and the President pretended to invite into the United States as the 51st state. ‘Canada,’ he said, “does not have the strength to be a nation”, and survives only by exploiting bilateral trade that is unbalanced in its favour. Incorporation might imply force, according to his insinuations.
Finally, with regard to the Panama Canal, the occupant of the White House felt that the Panamanian government was overtaxing American ships, and selling ‘control’ of the canal to the People’s Republic of China! Again, insinuations of the use of force.
In the case of the Panama Canal, Chinese interests are said to be at work, nibbling away at market share and buying up infrastructure. It is true that Panama is not a far-fetched case, since Chinese companies manage the ports at both ends. “They could block the ports,” say Trump and his aides, masters of the art of the express leak. Fortunately the skillful new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, traveled to Panama and obtain preferential treatment for United States shipping.
Then there is the case of Canada. President Trump has uttered one of the worst provocations an American can make to a Canadian: you weigh nothing, you’re just an annex of the United States, so incorporation into the Union is logical. However, Trump revealed something unexpected: while all the elected representatives and prominent Canadians have expressed their indignation, opinion polls, including one by Ipsos, reveal an unsuspected 40% of young people (aged 18-34) in favour of incorporation! On the other hand, 27% of Canadians now see the United States as an enemy. This anti-Americanism has always existed, but now it has a purpose. Will the pro and anti-Americans clash? They sometimes do, through their general elections. Nevertheless, Donald Trump has dared to touch a nerve.
In the case of Greenland, China’s appetite for mining has waned in recent years, although it could easily return. The Greenlanders themselves are taking a stand against foreign control of their mining resources as the soil gradually thaws due to global warming, their ecosystem is fragile and mining could do real damage. Nonetheless, Trump’s position is not hopeless: only a quarter of Greenlanders want to remain Danish. If they left the Danish kingdom, would they even be members of the European Union? Not all Greenlanders were put off by Trump’s offer, and pro-Americans are not seen as potential traitors. Denmark, however, feels insulted. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Greenland was not for sale, and that only Greenlanders would decide its future. Her Greenlandic counterpart, Múte Egede, Prime Minister of the Greenland self-governing region, said the same thing. The fact remains that if Greenland were to proceed, as seems likely, towards independence by referendum, then its 57,000 inhabitants might be tempted to join the United States, especially if special funds were offered. Elon Musk might have his say, and his money to burn. Greenland’s lithium would be excellent for Tesla cars. Here again Donald Trump has touched a nerve.
Finally, Gaza: no enthusiastic response from the Palestinians. The Gazans feel that their departure would please certain outsiders. Trump’s plan is both a real estate operation and an annexationist one: good for American funds eyeing a Riviera, and for the Israeli ultras who want to annex and even populate the Gaza Strip, and eventually banish all or almost all of its Arab population. Here, there are no polls to support Trump’s plan, no popular or even diplomatic support apart from that of the Israeli government. The case of Gaza is too far removed from the issues with which Donald Trump is familiar, i.e. those concerning his neighbours. It is true that the American president had built the Abraham Accords, but the monarchies of the Gulf and Morocco do not think like Hamas, Fatah or any other Palestinian party. The Abraham method will not be exported any time soon. In the end, Donald Trump could feel a great deal of frustration, the outcome of which we cannot predict. Even in the Greenland and Canadian cases, there may be a lasting resentment against so-called Manifest Destiny. It might lead to Manifest Backlash.
