At first, the atmosphere was one of polite celebration. At a reception in Abu Dhabi marking Israel’s Independence Day, Yossi Shelly, Israel’s ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, addressed his guests with carefully chosen words that echoed the official tone of his hosts. He praised the growing partnership between two nations committed to economic progress and technological innovation. Israel, he said, sought peace and wanted to expand the Abraham Accords—the diplomatic initiative launched under President Donald Trump that led to the normalization of ties between several Arab states, including the UAE, and Israel.
Shelly went even further, calling for a Nobel Peace Prize for the architects of that historic process. He then turned to the Muslim Brotherhood, branding the group a threat, and labeled Hamas a terrorist organization—remarks that resonated well in Abu Dhabi. In the Emirati corridors of power, both groups are seen as existential threats, politically, ideologically, and from a security standpoint. Up to that point, Shelly had demonstrated a keen awareness of his audience’s sensitivities.
But then, almost in passing, he mentioned Iran—and the pleasant tone of the evening abruptly changed. When Shelly described the Islamic Republic as the greatest security threat in the region and asserted Israel’s right to act by any means necessary against Tehran, the mood shifted. Eyes turned away. Conversations faded. It was the moment the subtext of the gathering took a darker turn.
For while the UAE harbors deep hostility toward Iran, it is also guided by strategic caution. The Gulf monarchies—Abu Dhabi chief among them—pursue a policy of balance: normalization with Israel, yes, but not at the cost of an open confrontation with Iran, with whom they maintain economic and religious ties. Shelly had touched a nerve—a reminder that beneath the fragile surface of regional normalization lie old tensions and new anxieties.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive posture, including his desire for a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, does little to reassure the Emirates. Officials in Abu Dhabi say that when they voice concerns, the response from Tel Aviv is essentially: Let us deal with Iran—and thank us later. The continuation of the war in Gaza, which has pushed the civilian population into humanitarian catastrophe, is another cause for growing unease.
Shelly’s appearance symbolized the new geostrategic reality in the region—and the discomfort it causes among the Gulf’s ruling elites. In Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, there is satisfaction that, following Hamas’s brutal terror attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has succeeded in weakening Iran’s regime and its key proxies—chief among them Hezbollah in Lebanon. But at the same time, Gulf rulers yearn for calm and stability. They want to focus on transforming their economies.
“The Gulf states want one thing above all: no war,” says a well-connected Gulf insider. What they really want is a deal between Washington and Tehran that resolves the nuclear issue. “The goal should not be regime change in Tehran, but a change in behavior,” says one Emirati analyst with ties to the leadership. Like Saudi Arabia—longtime rival of the Islamic Republic—the UAE is pursuing a thaw in relations.
Any escalation, especially a military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, could prove disastrous for both countries, as it would likely make them targets for Iranian retaliation or attacks by its proxies. Saudi Arabia knows this risk all too well. In 2018, its critical oil infrastructure was hit by a swarm of drones and missiles. At the time, then-President Donald Trump was pursuing a “maximum pressure” policy against Iran—while providing only minimal protection for America’s key Arab ally.
And now, eyes are once again on Trump. His name frequently comes up in discussions about the region’s uncertain future—be it the nuclear standoff, the war in Gaza, or the situation in Syria, where Washington has yet to clarify its position on the country’s new strongman, Ahmed al-Sharaa. The Gulf states remain dependent on the United States, even as they try to assert themselves as an increasingly independent power bloc with close ties to both China and Russia—often in ways that run counter to U.S. interests. The fact that Trump chose the Gulf as the destination for his first foreign trip is being interpreted as a sign of how much the region matters to him—geopolitically, as a source of investment in the U.S. economy, and as a market for American arms exports. A summit with representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was part of the itinerary.
Officials from several Gulf countries say they hope Trump’s transactional approach to politics might lead to tangible agreements that help calm the region. At the same time, his unpredictability unsettles the leaderships that depend on a stable American military presence and strategic backing. The uncertainty is particularly acute when it comes to Israel. There is deep skepticism about whether Trump is truly willing to rein in Prime Minister Netanyahu. And yet, many believe that if anyone can do it, it’s Trump.
Trump’s goal is to push Saudi Arabia—America’s most important Arab ally—into normalizing relations with Israel. In return, he’s offering Riyadh support in developing a civilian nuclear program and a stronger security partnership. But Riyadh remains deeply distrustful of Israel’s leadership and insists on at least a credible path toward a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly underscored this position in public. In recent years, he has also positioned himself as a global diplomatic player—acting as a mediator in the Ukraine war and in talks between Moscow and Washington. Observers expect Saudi Arabia to press for greater “strategic clarity” and long-term reliability from the United States.
For Trump, however, geopolitics may not be the top priority. Diplomats in the region say the president is above all interested in investment. He arrived in the Gulf with a large business delegation in tow. The Gulf monarchies have understood that the way to Trump’s heart is through his personal interests—and they now know how to entice him. The Saudi crown prince pledged $600 billion in investments shortly after Trump’s inauguration. The Emirates offered even more—promising to invest $1.4 trillion over the next decade, especially in artificial intelligence. Qatar, meanwhile—where the U.S. ambassador declared a new “era of understanding”—gave Trump a luxurious multimillion-dollar aircraft, set to become the new Air Force One. The president, for his part, sees no conflict of interest. On the contrary, he praised the economic value of what he called a “transparent transaction.”
