With each new escalation in the Middle East, the threat landscape in Europe grows more volatile. The Gaza war is not only shaping diplomatic relations and domestic debates, but also serving as a strategic platform for Islamist networks across the continent. Authorities in Germany, France, Austria, and Scandinavia are sounding the alarm: the conflict is fuelling a new wave of radicalisation – one that is strategically orchestrated and must be taken seriously by national security agencies.
Intelligence agencies warn of strategic mobilisation
Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the BND, warned in a confidential report as early as February 2025 that “the Gaza conflict has become a long-term mobilisation trigger for Salafist and jihadist groups in Europe.” According to the report, actors affiliated with Hamas, radical preachers, and Islamist NGO networks are leveraging the war not only for propaganda purposes, but also for recruitment, fundraising, and the establishment of parallel structures.
In France, the domestic intelligence agency DGSI has identified more than 400 online accounts over the past six months with “significant indicators of radicalisation” linked directly to Gaza-related content. These accounts are not merely agitational but are “part of transnational ecosystems focused on mobilisation, financing, and clandestine networking,” the agency says.
Hybrid actors gaining ground
Particular concern surrounds so-called “legalist Islamists” – actors who do not openly call for violence but seek to gradually erode democratic institutions and state authority. In Germany, organisations ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood or Hizb ut-Tahrir are under close surveillance, including Islamic cultural associations that have launched new mobilisation campaigns in response to the Gaza war.
According to a classified analysis by Germany’s Joint Counter-Terrorism Centre (GTAZ), Islamist actors are demonstrating a high degree of tactical agility: “They adapt quickly to the rhetoric of legitimate protest movements and cloak radicalisation efforts in the language of human rights advocacy.”
Moderate attack risk – but increasing volatility
Despite heightened activity, intelligence agencies in Germany and France currently assess the short-term risk of terrorist attacks as moderate. “There are no imminent warnings, but we’re observing clear radicalisation patterns around certain mosques and online platforms that could culminate in acts of violence,” a spokesperson from Germany’s domestic intelligence service, the BfV, told this publication.
France’s Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin recently revealed that five investigations are underway in Marseille, Paris, and Lyon involving returnees from Syria and Iraq who have allegedly reestablished contact with militant networks – some reportedly reactivated by the Gaza conflict.
Transnational funding and foreign influence
Another key security concern lies in how Islamist organisations in Europe are financed. According to multiple European intelligence services, some donations collected under the guise of humanitarian aid for Gaza are being funneled to Hamas-linked entities. A leaked report from the EU law enforcement agency Europol states that “Islamist groups are systematically abusing relief campaigns to reinforce operational networks across Europe.”
Germany’s BND has also highlighted persistent attempts by foreign powers – including Qatar and Turkey – to exert influence over Muslim communities in Europe through umbrella organisations. These efforts, the agency says, represent “a grey zone of foreign interference” that remains under-addressed at the EU level.
Fragmented national responses
While countries like France, Denmark, and Austria have tightened de-radicalisation measures and banned certain groups, the broader European response remains fragmented. A proposal for a joint EU strategy on preventing religiously motivated radicalisation, discussed in the European Parliament’s Home Affairs Committee in May, stalled due to political disagreements.
The European Commission plans to introduce a new framework directive on Islamist NGOs in autumn 2025, but several member states remain opposed, citing concerns over religious freedom.
Conclusion: An evolving threat to open societies
The Gaza war did not create Europe’s Islamist networks – but it has reactivated and reorganised them. Today’s security threat is not primarily defined by spectacular attacks but by gradual radicalisation, strategic entrenchment, and the systematic undermining of open societies.
Without a firm, coordinated response, Europe risks losing its security footing – not through panic, but through paralysis. Islamism in 2025 is more subtle, more digital, and ideologically more refined than ever before – but no less dangerous.
