On June 11, 2025, Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced their control over the “border triangle” region—an area where the borders of Sudan, Egypt, and Libya converge. The declaration has raised serious questions about the evolving dynamics of Sudan’s ongoing conflict and sparked regional alarm over sovereignty and border security.
The RSF described the capture of the strategically located triangle as a “qualitative advance,” stating in a press release that its fighters had inflicted heavy casualties on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and seized dozens of combat vehicles.
This announcement came shortly after the SAF confirmed its withdrawal from the area, calling it a “tactical repositioning” to support broader defensive plans. In its own statement, the army framed the move as part of its operational strategy to “protect national sovereignty and secure strategic sites amid ongoing developments on the border.”
Accusations of Instigating Regional Discord
Tensions escalated further when the SAF accused the RSF of coordinating with Libyan forces loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar to attack border outposts in the triangle. The army labeled the assault as a “flagrant violation” of Sudanese sovereignty.
In response, the foreign ministry of Libya’s Haftar-aligned government denied any involvement in the Sudanese civil war, affirming its commitment to international law and non-interference in the domestic affairs of neighboring countries.
The internationally recognized Libyan government also issued a statement denouncing any effort to drag Libyans into destabilizing activities that threaten the security of neighboring states. It warned that any Libyans or groups found participating in such operations would face full legal accountability.
Meanwhile, the Libyan National Army (LNA) accused Sudanese forces of repeated border provocations but claimed it had chosen restraint in order to preserve good relations. It said its border patrols had been attacked while conducting routine security operations, but dismissed the SAF’s “media dramatization” of the incident.
The LNA lamented that Libya, especially the eastern and southeastern regions, had borne the brunt of the humanitarian fallout from Sudan’s civil war, with hundreds of thousands of Sudanese fleeing to Libya. It accused the SAF of ignoring Libya’s support for Sudanese civilians and condemned what it called “unfounded hostility and fabricated claims.”
The LNA rejected what it described as Sudanese attempts to involve Libya in its internal power struggle. It warned against “this transparent attempt to stir regional unrest and settle domestic scores,” urging Sudanese factions to pursue reason, end the conflict, and prevent further suffering.
While affirming its readiness to support regional and international peace efforts, the LNA stressed its unwavering commitment to defending every inch of Libyan territory from any threat, in accordance with international law and the principles of good neighborliness.
Egypt Watches Closely
In Cairo, officials are closely monitoring the developments. Egyptian security analysts have downplayed the immediate military implications of the RSF’s claim but emphasized that any threat to Egyptian sovereignty or national security would prompt a firm response.
Major General Mohamed Salah Abu Hemila, a member of Egypt’s parliamentary Defense and National Security Committee, stated that while the situation is being followed with “great attention,” the seizure of the border triangle is likely a symbolic maneuver meant to distract from the RSF’s losses in Khartoum.
He reaffirmed Egypt’s support for Sudan’s legitimate institutions, stressing that Cairo does not favor one side over the other. His remarks align with Egypt’s consistent position of avoiding direct military involvement in the Sudanese war.
Retired General Samir Farag echoed this sentiment, calling the RSF’s move “a morale-boosting headline with no real strategic gain.” He noted that Egypt remains committed to securing its southern borders and has shown restraint despite provocations.
RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemeti, has repeatedly alleged that Egypt is supplying military aid—including warplanes—to the Sudanese army. Cairo firmly denied these accusations in 2024, calling on the international community to demand evidence from the RSF and reaffirming its dedication to peace efforts and civilian protection in Sudan.
Defending Egyptian Sovereignty
According to Abu Hemila, Egypt supports Sudan’s political legitimacy politically, not militarily. He emphasized Cairo’s priority of restoring order and governance in Sudan and welcomed the recent appointment of a civilian prime minister.
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly recently spoke with Sudan’s new interim premier, Kamil Idris, pledging to strengthen bilateral cooperation and maintain high-level coordination on all fronts.
Ambassador Salah Halima, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, linked the RSF’s advance into the triangle to Sudanese army allegations of Libyan support for the paramilitaries. He noted that the conflict remains fluid and that the triangle’s capture signals a new phase in the war.
Halima warned that any direct threat to Egyptian territory would prompt a swift and decisive response. “Egypt’s watchfulness is rooted in the imperative to defend its territorial integrity,” he said, also suggesting that the RSF’s actions may be paving the way for a “parallel government” in its controlled areas.
Supply Lines and Strategic Depth
A former Sudanese army officer, speaking anonymously, described the triangle’s seizure as strategically significant, granting the RSF control over vital supply routes from Libya. He warned this could threaten northern Sudanese regions still under SAF control.
The border triangle lies north of El Fasher in the Darfur region—currently the last major city in Darfur held by the army. RSF forces have besieged El Fasher for over a year, launching intensified assaults in recent weeks.
The triangle itself is rich in strategic value—serving as a key hub for migration, trade, and mineral smuggling. It also contains a small military outpost and commercial facilities used by traders and transporters crossing into Libya from Sudan’s Northern State. For years, it has served as a conduit for both licit and illicit traffic, including refugees heading toward North Africa.
A Tactical Shift or Desperation?
Sudanese journalist Mohamed Mahmoud argued that the RSF had long set its sights on the triangle for its commercial significance and its role as a key crossing point into Libya. After suffering defeats in central, eastern, and capital regions, the RSF, he said, is now targeting remote but valuable areas.
Mahmoud noted that the triangle directly connects to RSF ally Khalifa Haftar in Libya and offers a new staging ground for threatening Sudan’s Northern State. He predicted that the SAF withdrawal might be a prelude to a counteroffensive, adding, “This area is too important to leave uncontested.” He warned of imminent, high-stakes battles in the desert that could alter the war’s trajectory.
RSF’s Manpower Crisis and External Support
General Moatasem Abdel Qader, a strategic adviser at Sudan’s Higher Academy for Strategic and Security Studies, dismissed the RSF’s claim as a smokescreen. He asserted that the paramilitary force is grappling with recruitment failures in both Kordofan and Darfur and has diverted its remaining fighters to the Kordofan front.
According to Abdel Qader, the RSF is now stretched thin, facing internal rebellion in its former strongholds like Nyala and Al-Du’ain. “The past two years have disillusioned young fighters,” he said. “RSF can no longer replenish its ranks.”
He believes the opening of a new front on the Libyan border is not the RSF’s own doing, but the work of international backers attempting to disperse SAF forces and divert their focus from Kordofan and Darfur. These maneuvers, he warned, are designed to weaken the Sudanese army and expose the Northern and Nile States to new threats.
Still, Abdel Qader insisted the army is up to the challenge. “This is not a regular force we’re dealing with. These are mercenaries, arms traffickers, and smugglers,” he said. “The SAF has learned from two years of combat, rebuilt its strength, and is ready for war.”
He concluded that what is unfolding is part of a larger, long-term confrontation aimed at destabilizing Sudan through political, economic, and military means. “The nation is under attack,” he said, “and it must prepare for a protracted struggle—on every front.”
