Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, have agreed in Riyadh to negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. European leaders are left stunned. Even Yuri Ushakov, the foreign policy advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, appeared satisfied. The talks had gone well, he stated in Riyadh. Ushakov had previously sat across from the American delegation alongside Russia’s Foreign Minister.
“We discussed all the key issues,” Ushakov announced — primarily referring to one: the war in Ukraine. Trump is determined to end the bloody conflict, which began in 2022 with Putin’s invasion of the neighboring country, as quickly as possible. To achieve this, he is willing to break with previous U.S. policy and sit down at the negotiating table with the recently ostracized Russians.
The high-level meeting in Riyadh served as preparation for a far more significant summit. Soon, the American president himself plans to meet with Putin in Riyadh. Already, it is becoming clear what the two powerful leaders aim to negotiate single-handedly. The Russians reportedly hope for a swift end to sanctions and have even sent the head of their investment fund to the Arabian desert. Both sides have also agreed to fully restore their respective embassies in each other’s countries.
Neither the European allies of the United States nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is engaged in a brutal defensive war, were present in Riyadh. While Zelensky was in the neighboring United Arab Emirates at the time, it appears that the fate of his country is being decided over his head, directly between Moscow and Washington.
No concrete results from the preliminary talks have been disclosed yet. However, the meeting in Riyadh makes one thing clear: Europe must brace itself for turbulent times. Under Trump, Washington is unlikely to consider European sensitivities. Instead, the U.S. is opting for direct contact with Moscow. Yet, another aspect is causing deep unease in the capitals of America’s traditional allies. While Joe Biden met with Putin in Geneva, the classic city of diplomacy, on the eve of the Russian invasion, world politics is now being shaped in Riyadh.
For Saudi Arabia, which has long sought global recognition, the upcoming summit between the two superpowers marks a major prestige win. In recent years, its powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has repeatedly positioned himself as an honest broker in the Ukraine war. The prince, who maintains strong ties with Russia—particularly through negotiations on oil production quotas within OPEC+—has previously facilitated prisoner exchanges between the warring parties. However, his latest diplomatic maneuver surpasses all previous efforts. If Putin and Trump indeed meet in his kingdom, MBS will emerge as the big winner—regardless of the final outcome of the negotiations.
MBS owes this success to his close relationship with Trump. In 2017, the newly elected U.S. president was received in Riyadh like royalty. Even after Trump left office, business ties remained intact. However, whether these renewed “honeymoon” relations will last is another question entirely. While Saudi Arabia is capitalizing on its role as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict, another issue threatens to bring MBS into conflict with the Trump administration.
Just recently, Trump sparked outrage in the Middle East by suggesting that the war-ravaged Gaza Strip should be entirely depopulated and rebuilt from scratch. Neighboring countries like Egypt are vehemently resisting the idea of taking in Palestinian refugees. Saudi Arabia, which claims to be the leader of the Arab world, finds itself in a dilemma. As a result of the Gaza war, MBS has indefinitely postponed the normalization of ties with Israel—a process that had seemed nearly certain. Riyadh has stated that normalization will only happen if a Palestinian state is established. However, unlike the Biden administration, Trump is not known for patience when it comes to his pet projects, such as Israeli-Arab reconciliation without Palestinian involvement.
To counter this, Riyadh has proposed its own initiative for Gaza and has convened a mini Arab summit. Yet, whether the often-divided and now fearful Arab states will be able to produce more than just vague ideas remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia continues to bask in its current glory as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict. However, the new world order that Trump and Putin may celebrate at their potential meeting in Riyadh will ultimately impact more than just the shocked Europeans. Even regional powers like Saudi Arabia could soon find themselves in the crosshairs of an increasingly imperialist United States—if they fail to fall in line.
