By Ahmed Haridi, Cairo
Saudi Arabia’s powerful sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), is undergoing a major strategic course correction—a quiet but consequential shift taking place behind the scenes in Riyadh. Insiders speak of a sweeping recalibration of investments that has been underway for several months. At the heart of this transformation lies “Vision 2030,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious reform plan to modernize the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil revenues. The long-term stability of the Kingdom hinges on its success.
The PIF is the central engine of this transformation. With assets totaling $925 billion according to official figures, it ranks among the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. Through direct and indirect investments, the fund claims to have created more than 1.1 million jobs both inside and outside Saudi Arabia. Its portfolio spans a wide range of sectors—sports, entertainment, tourism, infrastructure, and emerging technologies. Among its flagship projects is the futuristic megacity Neom, a $500 billion desert development that has come to symbolize the country’s economic overhaul.
The fund’s investment strategy has evolved in two distinct phases. The first phase, from the launch of Vision 2030 in 2016 through to 2022, focused heavily on grand, symbolic projects intended to rebrand the Kingdom as a forward-looking, innovation-friendly economy and attract foreign investment. This branding effort paid off to an extent: Vision 2030 became a globally recognized initiative, and internally it fostered a sense of national pride.
But Saudi Arabia has now entered a second, more sobering phase. The grand visions are colliding with economic realities. The price of oil—still the Kingdom’s primary source of revenue—has dropped significantly and currently hovers around $60 per barrel, far below the $100 level experts say is needed to sustain the pace of economic diversification. As a result, the PIF has been forced to scale back its spending—a trend already reflected in recent industry reports.
In its earlier years, the fund operated with a “sprinkler system” approach to spending. Saudi Arabia became a magnet for global consulting firms, many of which secured lucrative contracts. The late journalist and regime critic Jamal Khashoggi once derisively described it as the “age of consultants.” Those days appear to be over. Faced with tightening fiscal conditions, the fund is now under pressure to allocate resources more prudently, strategically, and sustainably.
What’s becoming increasingly clear is that bold rhetoric alone is not enough to drive lasting economic transformation. Reform requires more than vision—it demands financial discipline, policy consistency, and long-term political stability.
According to experts and insiders, the current shift means pulling back from some of the high-profile megaprojects, which have drawn less foreign investment than anticipated. Wherever possible, implementation is being slowed. As early as last year, a government advisor revealed at an investors’ forum that even Neom, the crown jewel of Vision 2030, had been quietly downscaled. Some projects, however, are bound to tight deadlines and cannot be delayed, such as preparations for the 2029 Asian Winter Games, Expo 2030, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup—all requiring infrastructure like stadiums and even a ski resort built with artificial snow.
Instead, the PIF is expected to channel more of its resources into sectors now seen as higher priorities by the Saudi leadership: infrastructure, affordable housing, education, energy, and the development of new domestic industries. Unlike smaller Gulf states such as Qatar or the UAE, Saudi Arabia has a large and socioeconomically diverse population. While this offers a sizable internal market, it also presents challenges—many citizens are not affluent enough to consistently benefit from upscale entertainment and lifestyle offerings.
The new metro system in Riyadh, for example, has been warmly received by locals. “Not all Saudis can afford to use the Kingdom’s new entertainment options regularly,” says Middle East expert Sebastian Sons. “There’s a saturation point.” That’s one reason why the PIF is now branching into areas like esports and gaming—sectors with strong growth potential and broader appeal for the younger population.
As part of its ongoing reassessment, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has significantly strengthened quality control over its investments. “The PIF is now much more focused on ensuring that its projects are economically viable and actually stimulate the domestic economy,” says an insider with close ties to the Saudi leadership. These efforts are already beginning to bear fruit: “They’re doing well—but of course, there’s always room for improvement.”
Talent is not in short supply. The Kingdom makes sure that top management positions in key companies are filled by highly qualified professionals, often recruited from abroad. At the same time, it retains influence through royal family members or government officials who sit on boards and supervisory councils.
PIF Governor Yasir al-Rumayyan is one of the most powerful men in Saudi Arabia. He is widely regarded as a pragmatic, sharp-minded executive with a global network and a keen understanding of the financial world. A Harvard Business School graduate, Rumayyan plays a central role in Saudi Arabia’s economic diplomacy. In addition to his leadership at the PIF, he sits on the board of the state oil giant Aramco and holds senior positions in several other key enterprises backed by the fund. He also chairs the English football club Newcastle United—an acquisition he personally spearheaded as part of the PIF’s push into global sports, one of its high-profile investment areas.
Rumayyan is seen as the public face of the PIF and one of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s closest confidants. Although not a member of the royal family himself, he occupies a critical role in the Kingdom’s power structure—thanks above all to the Crown Prince’s unwavering trust. Bin Salman has made the country’s investment policy a top personal priority, centralizing control of the PIF and installing himself as its board chairman. As with broader state policy, the final word on major investment decisions rests with him.
Whether his highly centralized and authoritarian leadership style is conducive to building a dynamic, innovation-driven economy remains a matter of debate among experts. A thriving economy, they argue, requires intellectual freedom, room for dissent, and open debate—elements that are tightly constrained in today’s Saudi Arabia. The regime is notoriously intolerant of public criticism, especially when it casts doubt on the success of Vision 2030. Business journalism that highlights challenges or shortfalls is often labeled as disloyal, revealing a political culture that leaves little room for scrutiny.
Well-connected observers in Riyadh also point to a striking communication gap. The government struggles to explain the rationale behind its austerity measures or the strategic adjustments now underway. At a time when signature projects are being reevaluated and investment priorities reshuffled, there is a lack of open, transparent engagement—both domestically and internationally.
Still, Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly not blind to the limitations of authoritarian governance. Insiders say he understands the risks of an overly obedient leadership culture, where fear stifles honest feedback. In particularly sensitive economic matters, he has been known to allow room for internal discussion—by letting key committees convene without his direct involvement at first. But how far these deliberative spaces truly extend remains unclear.
Ultimately, the system remains heavily centered on one man. And that, observers say, is both its greatest strength—and its most significant vulnerability.
