A commentary by Frederic Mayne, London
For Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the current situation represents a classic win-win. Following the disastrous meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia now offers the diplomatic stage for a difficult rapprochement between Washington and Kyiv — a rapprochement in which Ukraine will likely have to make significant concessions to the United States. Conveniently, these talks took place in the desert — geographically far removed from the political wreckage left behind by Trump’s ruthless dispute in the Oval Office over an end to the Ukraine war, a major resource deal, and the future of a country brutally attacked by Russia.
Simply by hosting the negotiations, Mohammed bin Salman — who has effectively ruled the kingdom for years in place of his aging father, King Salman — gained considerable political clout. Saudi Arabia’s experience on the Ukrainian diplomatic front is paying off: the kingdom had previously brokered a major prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Yet in the new talks between Americans and Ukrainians, bin Salman did not explicitly present himself as a mediator. He was the host — and that alone was enough to further cement Saudi Arabia’s growing international significance.
There is a lot at stake personally for the Crown Prince — and even more to gain. A preliminary agreement between the United States and Ukraine already seems within reach. And should Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin eventually shake hands at a summit hosted in Saudi Arabia, the global spotlight would inevitably turn to the oil-rich desert kingdom and its young de facto ruler. For Mohammed bin Salman, it would be a diplomatic triumph: he would have visibly and dramatically increased Saudi Arabia’s international weight. The country’s influence would expand not only economically but also geopolitically — a major boost to Saudi soft power.
In doing so, bin Salman would be reviving a tradition that once made the kingdom a global heavyweight. Saudi Arabia’s influence was never based solely on its vast oil reserves. As the leading Arab power and custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, the kingdom held a prominent political role in the Arab and Islamic world for decades. This traditional stature, however, had faded under bin Salman’s rule, not least due to internal repression and unilateral foreign policy moves. Now, the Crown Prince has a real chance to reclaim that diminished influence — and to restore Saudi Arabia’s standing as an indispensable actor on the global stage.
Saudi Arabia’s reputation had taken a significant hit after bin Salman increasingly tightened his grip on power starting in 2015. The kingdom continues to carry the stigma of a pariah state — a label that stems not only from its long-standing human rights issues, which have improved only marginally. The country’s isolation was dramatically reinforced by then-U.S. President Joe Biden, who called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” following the brutal 2018 murder of journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi. Although bin Salman skillfully deflected personal responsibility for the atrocity, the stain on his reputation remained.
The military intervention in neighboring Yemen was another major failure for the Crown Prince. Launched in 2015 at the head of an international coalition, the Saudi-led war revealed the surprising military weaknesses of the highly modernized and expensively equipped desert kingdom. But that is now a distant memory. Under bin Salman’s modernization drive, Saudi Arabia has reemerged as a more visible and energetic player on the world stage.
The question, however, remains: is the Crown Prince truly interested in playing an active foreign policy role? Many observers argue that bin Salman appears far more focused on modernizing and marketing his own country than on asserting a bold new political leadership role abroad. In the ongoing Gaza conflict, for instance, countries like Egypt and Qatar have taken the lead, while Saudi Arabia has remained largely in the background, offering only expected, formulaic statements.
In the Syrian conflict too, Saudi Arabia has remained publicly on the sidelines — even though Syria, as a major Arab country, once commanded great Saudi interest. While Turkey, a non-Arab state, continues to play a key role in the fate of Bashar al-Assad, Riyadh has limited itself to a cautious, almost detached stance.
This calculated restraint could reflect a strategic recalibration by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The young de facto ruler appears less drawn to traditional power games than many of his predecessors. Instead, he is channeling his energy into ambitious domestic initiatives: massive infrastructure projects and the strategic realignment of the Saudi economy for a post-oil future. Yet as the Ukraine talks have shown, bin Salman knows precisely when and where to engage in foreign affairs to maximize Saudi Arabia’s advantage. Hosting these sensitive negotiations has bolstered the kingdom’s critical relationship with the United States — and, just as importantly, deepened the personal bond between the Crown Prince and Donald Trump.
The personal connection between the self-styled “dealmaker” in Washington and the ambitious heir in Riyadh has long been considered exceptionally close. After Trump’s reelection, the former president swiftly placed a personal call to bin Salman, and the Crown Prince reciprocated with promises of massive investments in the United States. It is no coincidence that Saudi Arabia ranks at the very top of Trump’s list of foreign visit destinations. The current diplomatic momentum could deepen this alliance even further — with far-reaching consequences not only for the region but for the global balance of power.
