Amid the recent clashes in Tripoli and heightened tensions on the Libyan scene, Tunisia has reemerged as a diplomatic actor proposing itself as a neutral ground for reconciliation. During its participation in the Arab League Summit held in Baghdad, the Tunisian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its full readiness to host a “Libyan–Libyan” dialogue under the auspices of the United Nations, aiming to reach a comprehensive political solution that preserves Libya’s unity and secures stability for its people.
Tunisia’s Role as Mediator in the Libyan Crisis
Tunisia’s efforts in this regard are not new. The country has long adopted a policy of non-alignment, emphasizing that any resolution must be purely Libyan without foreign interference or imposed agendas.
This approach aligns with Tunisia’s official stance that Libya’s stability is integral to its own national security, and that geographic proximity entails a direct responsibility to support any peace process.
This is not the first time Tunisia has proposed playing the role of mediator. In November 2020, it hosted the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, which marked a turning point in the political process at the time. Tunisia’s capital has also previously welcomed several Libya-Algeria-Tunisia security and political meetings aimed at enhancing regional coordination and border stability.
Key official visits, most notably President Kais Saied’s trip to Tripoli in March 2021, reinforced Tunisia’s commitment to a responsible and neutral role in facilitating Libyan dialogue. More recently, in April 2024, Tunisia hosted a trilateral summit with Algeria and Libya that focused on intensifying political and security coordination among neighboring countries and enhancing their collective role in border security and support for the political process.
Analysts believe Tunisia holds objective strengths that could enable it to succeed in this role. These include its close historical ties with Libya and the presence of a large, diverse Libyan community within its borders—factors that give Tunisia a unique understanding of Libyan sensitivities and the ability to offer a conducive environment for dialogue.
Moreover, Tunisia’s relative neutrality compared to other neighboring states has made it a more acceptable partner for various Libyan factions, especially as it has not been accused of meddling in Libya’s sovereignty or advancing partisan agendas.
A Measured Diplomatic Approach
The Tunisian initiative represents a renewed attempt to revive a political process increasingly threatened by the specter of widespread violence. However, the success of bringing Libyan rivals under one roof hinges on achieving local, regional, and international consensus that Libya can no longer afford further chaos and division.
According to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tunisia expressed deep concern over the dangerous security developments in Tripoli and their serious repercussions on the safety and wellbeing of Libyans and residents in the country.
In light of these risks to Libya’s future, Tunisia reiterated its call for an immediate cessation of violence across all regions, urging an end to the use of weapons and a return to dialogue as the sole means of resolving internal disputes.
The Ministry emphasized the need to prioritize national interests through consensus among all Libyan parties, under the auspices of the United Nations, to end violence and advance the political process toward elections and the establishment of unified and lasting state institutions that serve all citizens without exclusion, safeguarding the country’s unity, sovereignty, and stability.
Tunisia’s proposal is an extension of its longstanding diplomatic doctrine based on “an internal solution”—a purely Libyan political settlement, internationally facilitated but free from military pressures or regional polarization.
Tunisia Holds Cards of Influence
Former Tunisian Foreign Minister Ahmed Ounaies believes that Tunisia possesses real leverage that enables it to play an effective role in reconciling Libyan factions. He highlighted three key factors supporting this role.
First is the positive perception many Libyan political actors hold toward Tunisia, which is viewed as one of the few states that does not seek to impose foreign agendas or interfere in Libya’s sovereign decision-making.
Second are the social and human connections between the two peoples. Ounaies pointed out that instability in Libya directly affects Tunisia. Libyan migrants, families, and even political leaders seeking refuge often turn to Tunisia due to its geographic proximity and respect for Libyan autonomy.
The third factor is economic. Ounaies stressed that Libya’s stability is vital to Tunisia, particularly the southern regions that heavily depend on cross-border trade. Any deterioration in Libya directly impacts economic activity in southern Tunisia, which is closely tied to Libyan market dynamics.
Discussing the potential outcomes of a Libyan dialogue, Ounaies affirmed that Tunisia is not looking to impose predetermined results or steer Libyan decisions, but rather believes that the final word must emerge from a Libyan–Libyan consensus.
“We are not in a position to dictate outcomes to our brothers,” he said. “Success or postponement rests with them—but what matters is that the decision be entirely Libyan.”
Ounaies also revealed that several Libyan parties reject holding political talks in Egypt or Algeria, positioning Tunisia as a “neutral and available” venue. He believes Tunisia could effectively bring together Libyan rivals—if, and only if, there is a sincere willingness to resolve the crisis through peaceful dialogue, rather than violence or arms.
He also noted that the Tunisian initiative coincides with similar proposals by Libyan political groups for a dialogue in Morocco. Still, some Libyan actors have reservations about holding talks in Tunisia due to the influential Libyan diaspora there, which some view as aligned with specific factions—raising concerns about potential bias.
Libya’s Stability as a Pillar of Tunisian Security
Middle East and North Africa affairs researcher Boubaker Salem stated that Tunisia’s initiative to host a “Libyan–Libyan” dialogue is grounded in political realism. It reflects “a natural and balanced stance from a neighboring country that understands Libya’s stability is a key component of its national security.”
Salem stressed that Libya’s impact on Tunisia extends beyond security to economic and social dimensions, remarking that Tunisia’s national security “starts in Tripoli and ends at the Algerian border.”
He argued that the recent clashes in Tripoli—especially in the Abu Salim district—highlight the ongoing threats amid the proliferation of arms and continued East-West political divisions.
Salem viewed Tunisia’s call for dialogue as a positive development that supports ongoing efforts to restore Libyan stability. He noted that Tunisia’s hosting of a large and diverse Libyan community, which reflects the political and social mosaic of Libya, enables it to provide a preliminary platform for consensus-building.
Despite the relatively swift containment of the latest armed confrontations in Tripoli, Salem believes that a lasting solution to Libya’s crisis must be long-term. It should address political and geographic fragmentation, and put an end to arms chaos by consolidating weapons under state authority and dismantling militias that have become parallel power centers in various regions.
Commenting on potential reactions, Salem expressed confidence that the Government of National Unity under Abdul Hamid Dbeibah may view the Tunisian initiative positively. He added that many regional and international stakeholders with influence in Libya may find mutual interest in supporting this track, recognizing that prolonged disorder benefits no one.
He concluded his analysis with a warning: any further security deterioration or renewed armed clashes in Libya would have direct consequences for Tunisia, which shares a border of nearly 600 kilometers with its eastern neighbor. Thus, any call for dialogue should be seen as a preventive investment in the region’s overall security.
A Shelter for Libyans
In a similar vein, Mustapha Abdelkebir, head of the Tunisian Observatory for Human Rights, noted that the recent armed clashes in Tripoli stem from a combination of internal and external variables. Libya, he explained, is facing political fragility, volatile security conditions, and an explosive regional context—all making such violence foreseeable, despite prior relative calm.
Abdelkebir urged Tunisian authorities to embrace their role in hosting Libyan dialogue, saying: “Tunisia is the country best equipped to engage with all Libyan parties because it has maintained equal distance from all factions.”
He continued, “Libya is our strategic depth. Tunisia must be present in this moment and play a part in facilitating dialogue because it is the only state not exerting political pressure on the disputing Libyan parties.”
Conversely, political analyst Mohamed Dhwaib warned that despite the symbolic importance and good intentions behind Tunisia’s initiative, it runs up against a deeply complex Libyan reality—one that cannot be easily untangled through calls for dialogue, whether in Tunis or elsewhere.
