Turkey’s evolving policy in Syria highlights a complex interplay of security, economic, and geopolitical ambitions. As the Syrian conflict enters a new phase following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Ankara has adopted a multifaceted approach to cement its influence in the region. However, the path to achieving its objectives is fraught with challenges, requiring a careful balance of regional alliances, economic aspirations, and security imperatives.
Security Concerns: Balancing Allies and Adversaries
Turkey’s primary motivation in Syria has long been to address security threats, particularly from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organisation. With the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the YPG, playing a pivotal role in the fight against the Islamic State, Turkey’s efforts to neutralise Kurdish influence have met with resistance from both regional and international actors.
Ankara’s partnership with the Syrian National Army (SNA) and its tacit support for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have further complicated the situation. While these groups were instrumental in overthrowing the Assad regime, they now operate with a degree of autonomy that limits Turkey’s influence. The emerging alliances between HTS and other international players underscore Ankara’s diminishing leverage and the growing complexity of its role in post-Assad Syria.
Economic Ambitions: Rebuilding and Trade Expansion
Turkey’s economic strategy in Syria is centred on reconstruction and trade. Ankara has positioned itself as a natural partner for Syria’s rebuilding efforts, leveraging its proximity, expertise in infrastructure development, and strong trade ties. The bilateral trade volume, which reached $2.5 billion in 2024, is projected to grow to $10 billion, underscoring Turkey’s commitment to deepening economic integration with its neighbour.
Turkish exports to Syria, including construction materials, food products, and household goods, play a vital role in addressing Syria’s reconstruction needs. Conversely, Syrian exports of cotton and olive oil to Turkey highlight the potential for mutual economic benefits. However, these ambitions are tempered by regional rivalries and the need to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the Mediterranean.
Geopolitical Maneuvers: The Mediterranean Connection
Ankara’s strategy in Syria aligns with its broader Mediterranean ambitions, mirroring its 2019 maritime agreement with Libya. By pursuing an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement with the new Syrian government, Turkey aims to strengthen its claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, where competition over energy resources and territorial waters remains intense.
This strategy, however, risks escalating tensions with Greece, Cyprus, and other regional powers. The parallels with Libya highlight both the potential rewards and the inherent risks of Ankara’s approach. While Turkey seeks to position itself as a dominant player in the Mediterranean, its actions could provoke further instability and deepen existing divisions.
Regional Rivalries and International Challenges
Turkey’s ambitions in Syria are not without significant obstacles. The growing influence of Arab states in Damascus, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan, underscores Ankara’s limited sway in shaping Syria’s future. These countries, leveraging cultural and political affinities, present a formidable challenge to Turkey’s attempts to dominate the region.
Moreover, Israel’s increasing activity in Syria, including airstrikes and expanded operations, reflects concerns about Turkey’s growing influence. Israel’s potential support for minority groups to counter Turkish power further complicates the geopolitical landscape, posing additional hurdles for Ankara’s strategy.
The Road Ahead: Opportunities and Risks
Turkey’s policy in Syria represents a calculated gamble to secure its interests in a rapidly changing regional environment. While its economic and security objectives offer significant opportunities, the risks of overreach, miscalculation, and regional backlash are ever-present. The interplay of rivalries, alliances, and shifting dynamics requires Ankara to adopt a pragmatic and adaptive approach.
The success of Turkey’s ambitions in Syria will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges, leveraging its economic strengths and security partnerships while addressing the concerns of regional and international stakeholders. As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, Ankara’s role as a key player in the region will remain a subject of intense scrutiny and debate.
