The dramatic arrest of Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu during a pre-dawn raid marks a new low in Turkey’s ongoing departure from democratic principles. Observers and critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan see the move as a deliberate attempt to sideline the popular opposition leader — and perhaps the only credible challenger to the president — ahead of the next elections. While these are scheduled for 2028, many in political circles believe early elections are increasingly likely.
İmamoğlu, one of the most prominent figures in the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), achieved a historic victory in 2019 by becoming mayor of Istanbul, breaking the long-standing grip of Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) over Turkey’s largest city. His reelection, despite intense political and legal obstacles, made him a national symbol of resistance to Erdoğan’s growing authoritarianism.
Now, İmamoğlu faces serious charges alongside more than 100 others — including senior municipal officials and the head of a city-run construction firm. Prosecutors accuse them of corruption, embezzlement of public funds, and abuse of office. İmamoğlu has firmly denied all allegations, calling them a politically motivated attempt to eliminate him from the race. Particularly controversial is an additional charge: that İmamoğlu allegedly supported “terrorism” through his temporary cooperation with a left-wing political alliance ahead of the 2023 local elections — an accusation human rights groups have condemned as politically contrived.
Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç has sought to deflect any suspicion of political interference in the case. In a sharply worded statement, he said, “Attempting to associate these legal proceedings with the president is presumptuous and irresponsible.” Yet many find such denials unconvincing, especially in a political climate where the independence of the judiciary has been widely questioned for years.
Indeed, Erdoğan has never concealed his ambition to reclaim Istanbul — the city where he launched his political career. The defeats in the 2019 and 2023 municipal elections were among the most stinging blows to his leadership. That’s why the joy was all the greater among many citizens when spontaneous protests erupted after news of the arrests broke, despite a ban on public gatherings. In numerous districts — especially opposition strongholds — people marched, chanted anti-government slogans, and, in some cases, clashed with security forces.
The reactions from civil society and international observers leave little doubt that the case could have far-reaching political consequences. If convicted, İmamoğlu not only faces a prison sentence but could also be banned from holding political office — a fate that has already befallen several Erdoğan critics. In effect, the opposition’s most promising presidential contender could be eliminated long before the campaign even begins.
The arrest of Istanbul’s popular mayor is thus far more than a routine legal matter — it is a warning sign for the state of Turkish democracy, a symbol of deepening authoritarianism, and a bitter setback for those hoping for reform and political opening.
Turkish authorities responded to the protests with a significant expansion of security measures. In Istanbul, traffic was blocked on both Bosporus bridges leading to city hall, and several key roads were sealed off by riot police. President Erdoğan sharply condemned the calls for protest, particularly those issued by CHP leadership: “Turkey is not a country that will be ruled from the streets — we will not bow to street terrorism,” he declared.
While domestic outrage over İmamoğlu’s detention continues to grow, the international response has so far been muted. The clearest reaction came from financial markets: Turkey’s central bank is believed to have spent $11.5 billion propping up the collapsing lira the day after İmamoğlu’s arrest. Investor confidence plummeted, and the currency suffered a significant drop in value.
Political responses from abroad, however, have been diplomatically restrained. A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed only the hope that “normal due process will be observed.” U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated, “We do not comment on the internal decision-making of other sovereign states.”
Just days before the arrest, President Donald Trump held a phone call with Erdoğan. According to media reports, the Turkish president is actively seeking a formal meeting at the White House. Steve Witkoff, the new U.S. envoy for Middle East affairs, described the call as “transformational” in an interview with right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson, adding: “I think there’s a lot of good, positive news coming out of Turkey.”
An analyst at the Middle East Institute interpreted the situation as follows: “The international climate is boosting Erdoğan’s confidence. If the U.S. president no longer cares about democratic backsliding abroad, it gives autocrats like Erdoğan more room to maneuver.”
Even in Europe — where criticism of Erdoğan’s government once came swiftly — reactions have so far been restrained. Observers attribute this to shifting geopolitical priorities. With Trump moving closer to Russia in the Ukraine conflict, European governments fear for NATO unity and increasingly view Ankara as a necessary partner, including in potential peacekeeping missions.
So far, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been the highest-ranking official to voice concern, stating that Turkey “must uphold democratic values — especially the rights of elected officials.”
