The European Union has concluded a new migration agreement with the Arab world’s most populous country, Egypt. In order to close the deal, it was important for Brussels not only to get everything finalized with high-ranking EU officials: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen came to Cairo together with the heads of government of Italy, Greece, Austria, Belgium and Cyprus.
The size of the delegation could be understood as an indication of how important for Brussels the so-called “strategic and comprehensive partnership” with the regime of President Abdelfatah al-Sisi is: Strengthening bilateral relations, macroeconomic stability, cooperation in the areas of renewable energy, trade and security and, above all, migration management. Meanwhile, even the rather critical European Parliament approved the Commission’s relevant laws this week. For the European Union, controlling migration flows means nothing more than intercepting refugee boats and sealing off the Libyan border. Although it is currently relatively rare for migrants to set sail from the Egyptian coast to Europe, there are still large movements on the central Mediterranean route via Libya and the Egyptian head of state maintains good relations with the warlord Khalifa Haftar, who calls the shots in eastern Libya.
The deal with Egypt makes sense in principle and fits in with a series of similar agreements that the EU has signed with countries on its periphery, such as Tunisia and Mauritania. The Egyptian government also promises Europe that it will keep irregular immigrants at bay. In return, Sisi will receive generous economic aid totaling 7.4 billion euros, which will flow until 2027. This sum is five billion euros, which will be paid out as macro-financial aid in loans, as well as 600 million euros in grants. 1.8 billion euros are earmarked for joint investments in the areas of food security, green technologies and digitalization. Finally, there is a further 200 million euros for migration-specific projects, i.e. for border protection and return measures.
The agreement was already prepared last year. The Gaza conflict has increased the geopolitical importance of Egypt, which traditionally sees itself as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a driving force behind the deal, praised Cairo’s efforts to join Qatar and the United States in ending the war.
The EU Commission says that one billion euros could be paid out immediately. The rest of the money is linked to reform steps under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The financial injection comes at just the right time for Egypt, which is chronically indebted. The country needs $40 billion this year alone to service its huge foreign debt. Because of the war in the Gaza Strip, many tourists have stayed away and the Houthi terrorist attacks in the Red Sea have also caused income from the Suez Canal to collapse.
The EU is by no means the only power bloc that is buying goodwill in Cairo. The United Arab Emirates recently acquired a stretch of coast on the Mediterranean for 35 billion euros, where a luxury resort is to be built. China is also promising billions in investments, and Russia is building a nuclear power plant in the country.
The Europeans fear that migration pressure will increase dramatically if Israel expands its military strikes on the border town of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Egypt is already hosting numerous refugees, especially from Sudan.
With the new agreement, the days when the EU pilloried Egypt for its human rights violations are over. Von der Leyen also assured in Cairo that one goal of the agreement was to “work together on our commitment to promoting democracy and human rights.” In reality, the EU has long since come to terms with the autocracy on the Nile. Human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch rushed to describe the agreement as a betrayal of European values. The Greens in the EU Parliament believe the deal is “morally reprehensible and naive in terms of content,” while the leader of the conservative EPP group described the partnership with Egypt as “right and important” to stem migration flows.
Although the member states are increasingly aware that there is no way around working with Sisi, skepticism is warranted, as the example of Tunisia shows: Despite a similarly generous aid package, Kais Saied’s government remains an unreliable partner. The migration pressure via Tunisia has only eased slightly. And there is one more point that needs to be taken into account: Egypt definitely has an interest in the migration of its own citizens to Europe, because the diaspora transfers billions of euros in foreign currency back home every year.
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